Beliefs are forecasts

I think of beliefs as forecasts. They are our predictions about how the world works. The results tell us how well our model is tracking reality.

A long time ago, when I was studying neuro-linguistic programming, we talked about the meta model and the models of the world we create. We each experience reality through our own version of it. I don't think we ever know objective reality completely.

So we make a forecast and see what happens. The mistake is refusing to update the model when the results contradict it, then blaming reality for the mismatch.

To me, mental flexibility is updating your model of reality based on the results. When things keep turning out differently from what I expected, I need to examine the belief behind that expectation.

The more closely my model tracks reality, the more I can influence the world around me. Understanding how things work gives me more room to change them.